Second Quarter 2024 Investment Commentary
The second half of the year is poised for a mathematical deceleration in year-over-year growth as the combination of labor deceleration, further cumulative deterioration for the “have nots”, and the higher for longer conditions of interest rates means constraints on acceleration in the cyclical economy and consumer credit growth.
Fourth Quarter 2023 Investment Commentary
We will detail the macroeconomic winter weather pattern and its rate of change asymmetry that will characterize the first part of 2024.
Third Quarter 2023 Investment Commentary
In the echoing halls of our longhouse, we shall recount the current chapter of this Convergence epic, deciphering the length of the Stagflationary season ahead, and how we are charting our course aboard the multi asset class long short longship: the Drakkar.
Second Quarter 2023 Investment Commentary
Seasoned investors that thrive long term understand that the Pain of Discipline is less than the Pain of Regret. In this context, the pain of discipline is following your risk management process while everyone else is succumbing to their Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) while you watch from the sidelines refusing to participate in what you know is reckless behavior.
Don't Overlook the Importance of Timely Returns on Your Cash Reserves
Our team’s extensive experience in the banking industry permits us the means to analyze the regulatory filings of your existing bank to better inform your judgment when making decisions about your cash reserves.
Impact of the Silicon Valley Bank Failure
In this blog post, we'll explore the reasons behind the Silicon Valley Bank's failure, as well as its impact on startups and the broader financial landscape.
Live your life anyway
In a world full of negative headlines and uncertainties, it's easy to get caught up in worries and second guess ourselves. But waiting for the perfect time when things are less uncertain is an illusion.
2022 Market Commentary
Not since 1926 has market conditions been this painful and yet our managed portfolios incurred a fraction of the pain compared to long only stock and bond allocations which is the most common allocation for most investors.
Third Quarter 2022 Investment Commentary
While equity markets have sold off over the past several weeks from their mid-summer highs, we do not believe they adequately discount this earnings recession risk.
Second Quarter 2022 Investment Commentary
It’s been an extremely difficult year for investors, with equity markets falling into bear market territory (down more than 20%) and “low-risk” bond markets registering low double-digit losses.
First Quarter 2022 Investment Management Commentary
Diversification into other asset classes, market segments and alternative strategies can be particularly valuable in such an environment. This specifically made a huge difference to our portfolio’s relative performance.
Commentary on Recent Market Volatility
The fact that market declines are a normal part of investing in stocks and happen relatively often doesn’t make them any less unnerving to investors whose financial security may seem to be at stake.
Annual 2021 Investment Summary
A quick summary of our annual 2021 investment commentary and portfolio update.
Annual 2021 Investment Commentary
Our in depth annual 2021 investment commentary and portfolio update.
What Is Going on with China?
A lot has happened in a very short time in terms of China’s regulatory actions, and it has appropriately created huge uncertainty and raised many questions among investors.
Third Quarter 2021 Investment Management Commentary
For the year to date, the S&P 500 is up an impressive 15.9%. We think the odds are high that short-term rates will rise but still remain low by historical standards and also below the rate of inflation for several more years. And we expect U.S. stocks to earn an adequate excess return premium above core bonds in our medium-term “upside” scenario.
Research Comments on Evergrande and China’s Property Sector
We have followed these events closely as part of our ongoing research work on China and emerging markets and thus far we are of the view…